India’s electric vehicle transition could create 7.2 million direct manufacturing jobs by 2040 if the country develops domestic battery-cell manufacturing at scale, according to a study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and IIM Bangalore. Without that localisation, the study estimates direct EV-related employment would reach only around 4.3 million jobs over the same period. The study also projects domestic cell manufacturing could unlock more than 17 million additional jobs across associated supply chains.
Current Capacity Versus the Pipeline
The study puts India’s current domestic battery-cell manufacturing capacity at approximately 1.4 GWh—less than 3% of projected battery demand for 2032. Separately, industry commentary has drawn a distinction between commissioned cell-manufacturing capacity and broader “announced capacity” figures that include pack assembly operations (importing finished cells and assembling them into modules and packs), noting that pack assembly alone typically captures a smaller share of total battery value-chain revenue than cell manufacturing itself.
Against that current base, the study identifies a pipeline of around 128 GWh of announced capacity, comprising roughly 50 GWh under the Production Linked Incentive scheme for Advanced Chemistry Cell battery storage and approximately 78 GWh from other announced automotive-linked projects. If this pipeline is commissioned, the study projects India could cross 30% battery localisation by 2032 across its three modelled electrification pathways.
The 25% Threshold
One of the study’s central findings is that EV manufacturing does not automatically translate into net manufacturing job creation. According to the study, the balance between jobs created in EV manufacturing and jobs displaced from conventional engine, transmission and fuel-system manufacturing turns positive only once domestic battery manufacturing crosses roughly 25% localisation. Below that threshold, the study finds the transition could displace more manufacturing jobs than it creates.
This finding sits alongside a separate estimate from the Climate Policy Initiative, which projects that 31% of existing roles in India’s automotive value chain could be directly affected by electrification, with about 14% of roles at risk of becoming obsolete and roughly 17% requiring substantial reskilling to remain relevant, figures that quantify the displacement side of the equation the ICCT-IIM Bangalore study’s 25% threshold is designed to offset.
Scale of the Broader Opportunity
Under the study’s most ambitious electrification pathway, annual EV production in India could reach approximately 32 million vehicles by 2040, with EV-related economic output rising from an estimated $12.8 billion in 2024 to $620 billion by 2040.
Separately, a 2026 industry report from staffing firm Adecco projected India’s broader EV industry, including indirect employment, could generate 30 to 40 million jobs by 2030, split roughly 10-15% directly and 85-90% indirectly. That figure covers a shorter timeframe and a wider employment base than the ICCT-IIM Bangalore study’s focus specifically on direct manufacturing jobs tied to battery localisation, reflecting differences in scope and methodology between the two assessments.
What the Supply Chain Includes
The study frames battery-cell manufacturing as an industrial anchor for a wider set of suppliers, spanning battery materials, electrodes, cell components, thermal-management systems, battery-management electronics, pack manufacturing, testing, recycling and associated engineering services. A separate ICCT global assessment (Vision 2050, published February 2026) found that approximately 80% of EVs currently sold in India are already domestically manufactured, a figure ICCT’s India Managing Director Amit Bhatt cited as evidence that “India already has the foundation to build its clean transport future at home,” while noting the deeper opportunity lies in extending that domestic base into higher-value components such as battery cells, rather than assembly alone.