Electric vehicles currently account for approximately 8.7% of total bus sales in India, according to Switch Mobility, which expects penetration to cross 10% as battery technology improves and operators grow more comfortable with electric mobility, with the company pointing to potentially faster adoption once penetration moves beyond 15%.
Where Other Estimates Stand
Other industry estimates place current e-bus penetration in a broadly similar range but not identically: ICRA has put penetration in the medium and heavy bus segment at around 7% as of FY26, up from 5,412 units sold that year compared with just 37 units in 2017-18, with more than 2,000 e-buses sold in the first four months of FY27 alone. CareEdge Ratings has cited an adoption rate of roughly 8 e-buses per million people nationally, against a global average of around 94 per million. The variation across estimates generally reflects differences in scope total bus sales versus the medium-and-heavy segment specifically, or national averages versus concentrated metro deployment.
Longer-term projections also vary: ICRA expects penetration to reach around 30% by FY30, KPMG projects 35–40% by FY35, and the International Council on Clean Transportation has cited a national government target of 40% electric bus penetration by 2030.
Government Procurement Driving Demand
Government procurement programmes remain the primary demand driver. Under PM E-DRIVE, the Ministry of Heavy Industries’ Convergence Energy Services Limited (CESL) concluded its Phase I tender for 10,900 electric buses in December 2025, followed by a Phase II tender for 2,900 additional units that concluded in May 2026. Separately, PM-eBus Sewa has issued tenders across roughly 169 cities, targeting deployment of more than 80,000 e-buses by 2027-28 across both programmes, backed by a cumulative budgetary allocation of approximately ₹1 lakh crore.
Switch Mobility itself won a 650-bus order under PM E-DRIVE’s Phase II tender in late August 2026, supplying 450 air-conditioned buses to Mumbai’s BEST and 200 non-AC buses to Pune’s PMPML.
Competitive Landscape
India’s e-bus market remains highly consolidated. Based on CY2025 registration data, PMI Electro Mobility Solutions led with 1,041 units (23.4% share), followed by Olectra Greentech with 990 units (22.3%), Switch Mobility with 950 units (21.4% roughly 600% growth from 136 units in 2024), JBM Auto with 698 units (15.7%), and Pinnacle Mobility Solutions (Eka Mobility’s parent) with 310 units (7.0%). Together, the top five manufacturers account for approximately 90% of annual registrations.
Component Localisation
According to the International Council on Clean Transportation, powertrain and battery systems together account for more than 60% of an electric bus’s total cost, making localisation of these components central to improving cost competitiveness and reducing import dependence. Battery warranties in the segment have lengthened from around five years to as much as eight years as battery durability and lifecycle economics have improved, alongside the emergence of longer-range electric buses.